Democrats lost a 12-point edge among voters who received expanded child tax credit payments, GOP now holds slight lead: poll

• Democrats lost a 12-point edge (49% – 37%) among voters who received the expanded child tax credit.
• Per a new Morning Consult/Politico poll, voters who received the credit now back the GOP 46%-43%.
• With the collapse of the Build Back Better Act, the party has struggled to extend the provision.

Last year, Democrats championed the expanded child tax credit (CTC) — which sent payments of $250 to $300 per child via direct deposit from July through December — as part of their sweeping economic plan intended to reduce poverty and provide families with funds throughout the year for vital expenses.

However, a one-year extension of the credit, which at one point was a centerpiece of the party's expansive Build Back Better Act, fell apart when Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia's opposition to the provision helped doom the larger piece of legislation during congressional negotiations.

In December 2021 — when Americans were still receiving the child tax credits — a Morning Consult/Politico survey showed that 49% of recipients were more likely to back a Democratic congressional candidate, while 37% said they would likely support a Republican candidate.

Now, the Democratic edge has been erased, according to a recent poll.

In a February survey, Democrats still clung to a 44%-43% advantage over the GOP — within the margin of error.

In the latest Morning Consult/Politico survey, 46% of parents or guardians with at least one child under 18 years of age who received the credit said they were inclined to support a Republican congressional candidate, versus 43% who indicated they were leaning toward a Democratic candidate.

The numbers represent a significant 15-point swing toward the GOP.

Among all voters who were surveyed this month, 43% said they would back a Democrat if the election were held today, while 43% said they would support a Republican candidate.

The latest survey was conducted from April 1 through April 4, with 2,003 registered voters and 337 respondents who indicated that they received the child tax credit; there were margins of error of plus or minus 2 and 5 points, respectively.

In the American Rescue Plan, which was signed into law by President Joe Biden in March 2021, the child tax credit was increased from $2,000 per child to $3,000 per child over the age of six, while parents of children under age six saw the credit rise to $3,600.

The tax credits were paid out as direct monthly payments, and Democrats have for months touted the benefits of the provision.

Per the Columbia University Center on Poverty and Social Policy, the December child tax credit kept 3.7 million children out of poverty.

However, the expanded credits expired in December and many parents are struggling with the loss of the payments, compounded with rising costs on everything from housing to gas.

The version of the Build Back Better Act that passed the House last November included an extension of the child tax credit, but the bill's demise in the Senate at the hands of Manchin sent the party reeling. He has demanded a work requirement for the tax credit and wants families to demonstrate they have taxable earnings with a W-2 form.

This week, Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones of New York blasted Manchin over his stance on the credit, arguing that the West Virginia lawmaker will be the reason if the party suffers politically in November.